Bartlett, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

273
FXUS64 KMEG 261128
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
628 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected into next
  weekend, capable of producing localized heavy rainfall.

- Temperatures will trend near normal with highs in the upper 70s
  to mid 80s and lows in the 60s through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

GOES Water Vapor satellite indicates an upper-level low located
over east Texas, with a plume of low level moisture advecting up
from the Gulf into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Southeast U.S. The latest surface analysis shows a weak quasi-
stationary boundary located over portions of the Ohio and Lower
Mississippi Valleys. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show scattered
rain showers along and west of the Mississippi River, and numerous
rain showers near the Tennessee River. Cloudy skies prevailed
across the Mid-South late this evening with temperatures ranging
from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Ample low-level moisture is expected to lead to the redevelopment
of low stratus across the area overnight. Patchy fog is possible
east of the Mississippi River where temperatures are approaching
saturation in some locations. Short-term model trends indicate
the best coverage for rain showers overnight will be across areas
mostly along and north of I-40. Overall, rainfall amounts are
expected to remain light, generally 0.10 inch or less. Coverage
will become more isolated to scattered by Wednesday with overall
shear remaining very weak and a lack of synoptic systems over the
area.

Long range model trends suggest an increase in showers and
thunderstorms across the area late week into the start of next
weekend as a strong northern stream shortwave trough pushes a
cold front into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Confidence in the timing of drier air returning to the area
remains low with the GFS being the outlier as Canadian and ECMWF
solutions favor a slower and continued wet pattern across the Mid-
South through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Upper low over the Arklatex will gradually lift north toward
southern Missouri today with SHRAs across the Mid-South, most
numerous across the northern sections (JBR, MKL). A few TSRAs
could occur this afternoon, but confidence is too low to mention
in any of the TAFs. SHRAs/TSRAs will mostly taper off during the
evening. IFR/MVFR cigs will gradually improve to VFR this
afternoon, then lower again later tonight and early Wednesday.
Winds will be light through the period.

SJM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

No major fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable
future. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
through at least the end of the weekend as a wet and unsettled
pattern persists across the Mid-South.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...SJM